SUPPLY: STABLE STOCK WITH FOCUS ON EXISTING SPACE OPTIMIZATION
Total retail stock in HCMC remained unchanged at approximately 1.24 million sqm in Q3 2026, as no new project entered the market. Existing retail centers continued to focus on improving operational efficiency through tenant mix adjustments, promotional activities and seasonal events to attract shoppers.
DEMAND: HIGH OCCUPANCY AMID CONTINUED BRAND EXPANSION
Average occupancy reached 95.3% (-0.2 ppts QoQ; +1.0 ppt YoY). The slight decline mainly reflected temporary vacancies during tenant reshuffling rather than weakening demand. Department stores remained virtually fully occupied, while shopping centers and retail podiums both maintained occupancy above 94%.
Leasing demand continued to focus on locations combining shopping, dining and entertainment, while expanding into neighborhood retail formats. During the quarter, AEON opened its first AEON MaxValu supermarket in HCMC on July 16, 2026, at Dream Home Resident apartment complex, with approximately 400 sqm of floor area. Bao Tin Manh Hai opened 11 stores across the city on August 1, 2026. This momentum was supported by sustained consumer spending, with total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue reaching VND 1,488,689 billion in the first nine months, up 13.8% YoY.
AVERAGE ASKING RENT: MODEST GROWTH WITH LOCATION-BASED DIFFERENCES
Average asking rent reached VND 1.6 million/sqm/month (+0.15% QoQ; +3.7% YoY). CBD rents remained the highest at VND 4.5 million/sqm/month, unchanged QoQ and up 2.8% YoY, supported by prime locations and limited availability. Non-CBD rents reached VND 1.2 million/sqm/month (+0.2% QoQ; +4.2% YoY). The modest quarterly increase suggests that landlords remain cautious about tenant affordability when adjusting rents.
MARKET OUTLOOK: FUTURE SUPPLY TO CONCENTRATE IN THE EAST
The market is expected to add approximately 1.26 million sqm of new supply by 2030, equivalent to the existing retail stock. The East will account for 61% of new supply, while the CBD represents only 12%, with the remainder spread across other submarkets. Limited development space is expected to continue supporting CBD rents, while the East may face greater competition. The performance of new projects will depend on surrounding population, accessibility, tenant mix and competitive rents, while actual opening schedules will determine the level of competition in the short term
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